Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8537…0d86 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$9
other 23% −$8
crypto 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 36 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -7.2% -16.1% 42% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage529d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $40 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $23 −$3 -12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $61 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $112 +$4 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $226 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $53 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $27 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $70 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $126 +$6 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $111 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $226 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $45 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $36 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $22 +$1 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $28 −$1 -4%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $225 −$2 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 12 $224 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $490 +$2 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Feb 27 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Notre Dame beat Penn State by 2 or more points? Jan 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $57 39h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $57 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 16¢ $23 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $50 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $54 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $58 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $57 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.42 · official $57.42 (match) · 161 history records