Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x8536…d8bb other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$450 (-70%) realized −$457 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$392
other 22% +$24
sports 12% −$42
crypto 3% −$19
tech 1% −$6
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-51.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 2 +29.0% +16.7% 50% 50% +17.7%
≤90d 5 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 40% -84.7%
all 25 -46.5% -51.6% 28% 28% -76.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.6% 28% -76.6%
10% -56.2% 24% -78.8%
15% -60.5% 24% -80.9%
20% -64.3% 20% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$27 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$457
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage206d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $35 $50 +$15 (+44%)
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $22 +$13 +60%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $20 $0 -2%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 12 $390 −$390 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $5 $0 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 01 $5 $0 -6%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jan 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-02? Jan 02 $9 +$5 +56%
Will AS Roma vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26? Nov 27 $12 +$7 +61%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $9 +$3 +39%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $22 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 27d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 64¢ $17 41d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 41d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 13¢ $30 68d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 29¢ $63 72d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 33¢ $280 73d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $15 73d
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar BUY Yes 35¢ $17 111d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 138d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 138d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 138d
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Torino FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 166d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 167d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 167d
Will Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 167d
Will Atalanta BC vs. AS Roma end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 167d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 168d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 168d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 168d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-01-02? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 168d
Will AS Roma vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 186d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 186d
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 187d
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 187d
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 187d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 187d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 187d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.48 · official $52.48 (match) · 87 history records