Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8535…e6eb other 52 markets active 23d ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (123 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$367 (-21%) realized −$367 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day122.8pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$391
crypto 10% −$10
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (123 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 52 -26.6% -33.6% 25% 23% -30.3%
≤90d 52 -26.6% -33.6% 25% 23% -30.3%
all 52 -26.6% -33.6% 25% 23% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.6% 23% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.0% 21% -37.0%
15% -45.8% 17% -43.1%
20% -51.1% 12% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day122.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 06 $6 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -77%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $13 −$8 -61%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 62.5 million views in wee Jun 06 $2 −$1 -50%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $158 −$11 -7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 06 $15 −$8 -54%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.5 and 62 million views in wee Jun 06 $3 −$2 -70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 06 $76 −$30 -39%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 06 $249 −$103 -41%
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Jun 06 $0 $0 -5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $39 −$33 -84%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views on day 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $14 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -80%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $24 −$22 -94%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 05 $9 +$4 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" be the May film with the highest domestic gros Jun 05 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -5%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on day 6? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -33%
Will MrBeast's next video get 61 million or more views on day 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $66 −$15 -23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $37 +$9 +24%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $26 −$16 -61%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $14 −$13 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -76%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" be the May film with the highest dome Jun 04 $3 $0 -16%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $28 +$21 +74%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $3 +$3 +129%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $97 −$44 -45%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 53 million views on day 4 Jun 03 $2 +$1 +25%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 03 $60 −$48 -79%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +227%
Will MrBeast's next video get 100 million or more views on week 1? Jun 03 $8 −$5 -66%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $96 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $15 +$5 +36%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $147 −$39 -26%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $179 −$12 -6%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -52%
between 41 and 43 million views Jun 02 $34 +$20 +59%
43 million or more views Jun 02 $66 +$33 +50%
between 39 and 41 million views Jun 02 $22 +$12 +56%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 01 $53 −$40 -76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 31 $4 +$3 +74%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 31 $16 −$2 -13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 31 $53 −$21 -40%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? May 31 $48 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY No 0¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY No 0¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY No 0¢ $0 22d
Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY No 4¢ $2 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY No 9¢ $6 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63.5 and 64 million views in wee BUY No 6¢ $3 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? SELL Yes 83¢ $19 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 63.5 million views in wee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1152 history records