Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8534…f2a1 other 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%53W / 61L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$36
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$53
other 35% +$6
politics 10% $0
sports 4% +$1
finance 2% −$7
crypto 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 75% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 25 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 38 +0.5% -9.1% 58% 3% -9.0%
all 114 -2.2% -11.5% 46% 3% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 3% -9.0%
10% -20.0% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.7% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.75 per $1 lost it wins $2.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses53 / 61
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage459d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $245 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $186 +$4 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $564 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 19 $182 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $373 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $18 +$9 +48%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $368 +$3 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $177 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $474 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $185 +$10 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $168 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 10 $146 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $202 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $365 −$4 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $86 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $240 +$17 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -42%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $184 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $255 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $376 +$7 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $171 −$7 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $175 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 −$1 -16%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $226 +$1 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $66 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $171 +$4 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $269 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $79 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $83 +$2 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $1,011 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $7 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 23 $7 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by October 31? Oct 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will The Life of a Showgirl by Taylor Swift be the top Spotify album f Oct 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 20 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $35 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $129 9m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $188 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $171 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $20 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $186 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $140 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $190 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $54 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $67 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $123 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $190 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $66 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $117 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $183 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.60 · official $17.60 (match) · 373 history records