Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8534…d7e0 world 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-1%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$21
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$77
politics 22% +$2
sports 17% +$6
other 15% −$1
crypto 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 22% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 80 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.1%
all 102 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 1% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 74
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage474d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $76 $77 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $77 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $238 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $306 −$11 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $76 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $81 +$3 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $385 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $158 −$11 -7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $75 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $141 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $74 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $74 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $147 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $182 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 28 $195 −$25 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $276 −$21 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $245 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $91 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $119 +$3 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $185 −$11 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $167 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $86 −$2 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $132 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $145 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $477 −$1 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $160 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $145 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $145 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $145 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $291 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $157 −$2 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 20 $150 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $12 $0 -3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $138 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $76 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $76 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $77 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $77 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $77 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $53 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $77 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $85 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $85 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $77 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $77 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $60 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $23 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $57 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $79 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $76 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $84 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $81 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $74 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $75 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $53 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $53 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.51 · official $76.52 (match) · 450 history records