Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x8532…5faf sports 487 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,117 (-4%) realized −$2,019 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%218W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$676est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,279
7 days−$10,169
14 days−$10,169
30 days−$10,169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,491
other 1% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -51.0% -55.7% 22% 22% -66.0%
≤30d 132 -51.0% -55.7% 22% 22% -66.0%
≤90d 375 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 45% -13.5%
all 485 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 45% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 45% -13.8%
10% -20.1% 44% -22.0%
15% -27.9% 41% -29.6%
20% -34.9% 35% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$105 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,019
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses218 / 267
Est. fees paid−$676
Open positions1
Markets (closed)485 / 487
History coverage148d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $66 +$69 +106%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 +$99 +99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$53 +114%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$29 -57%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs MVK Esports (BO3) - Esports Worl Jun 17 $51 −$49 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $140 +$36 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$60 +147%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
LoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $210 −$132 -63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe - Game 2 Winn Jun 17 $143 +$111 +78%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $114 −$107 -94%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$97 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $176 −$176 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $83 14m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $52 23m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 41¢ $15 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $51 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $49 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 46¢ $51 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $200 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $50 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $51 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $100 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $47 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $102 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $162 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $466 35h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 42¢ $199 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $78 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $277 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 44¢ $51 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $152 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $44 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $50 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $112 42h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $153 42h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $82 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 96¢ $141 44h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 40¢ $60 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $171 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 1069 history records