Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
85 0x8532…738b sports 960 markets active 2h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,347 (+2%) realized −$32 · open +$4,379
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%451W / 482L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$1,272est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$26,795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$849
7 days+$1,399
14 days+$4,545
30 days+$13,564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$1,165
politics 14% +$4,760
other 9% −$261
economics 0% −$729
world 0% +$135
tech 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 51% -4.0%
≤30d 70 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 47% +15.0%
≤90d 641 -46.8% -51.9% 27% 26% -33.9%
all 933 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 48% -10.2%
10% -21.8% 47% -18.8%
15% -29.4% 47% -26.6%
20% -36.3% 44% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$206 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$26,795
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$4,379
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses451 / 482
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,272
Open positions27
Markets (closed)933 / 960
History coverage272d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $5,780 $6,162 +$382 (+7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 88¢ $2,456 $5,565 +$3,109 (+127%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $3,245 $3,635 +$390 (+12%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $1,700 $1,825 +$125 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 69¢ 75¢ $1,423 $1,540 +$117 (+8%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $995 $1,521 +$527 (+53%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $938 $957 +$19 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 64¢ 88¢ $378 $515 +$137 (+36%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $480 $465 −$15 (-3%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 58¢ $308 $410 +$102 (+33%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $410 $405 −$5 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 56¢ $413 $388 −$24 (-6%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 31¢ $406 $380 −$26 (-6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $360 $356 −$4 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $352 $348 −$4 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $339 $337 −$1 (-0%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $329 $326 −$4 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $312 $309 −$3 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $268 $276 +$8 (+3%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 53¢ $295 $265 −$30 (-10%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $150 $238 +$88 (+58%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 53¢ 30¢ $318 $180 −$138 (-43%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $273 $158 −$115 (-42%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $145 $113 −$32 (-22%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $265 $82 −$182 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $443 −$70 -16%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $374 +$425 +114%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3,581 −$186 -5%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 17 $801 −$611 -76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $447 +$153 +34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $364 +$241 +66%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $202 +$397 +197%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $264 −$260 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $358 −$354 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $890 +$809 +91%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $641 −$630 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $105 −$102 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $111 −$108 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $215 −$210 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $346 −$342 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $567 +$377 +66%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $439 +$260 +59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $423 +$175 +41%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $296 −$290 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $92 −$90 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $355 −$350 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $696 +$297 +43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $167 +$184 +110%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $527 +$326 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $872 −$861 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $779 −$170 -22%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $199 +$101 +51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $130 +$142 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $382 −$378 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $422 −$416 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $425 −$420 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $2,084 +$567 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $2,746 +$1,518 +55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $334 +$266 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1,154 +$449 +39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $353 +$146 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $397 +$303 +76%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $209 +$291 +140%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1,898 +$786 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $1,981 +$633 +32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2,255 +$2,639 +117%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $352 −$348 -99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $2,347 +$375 +16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $231 −$225 -98%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 07 $3,343 +$46 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $362 −$122 -34%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $446 +$253 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $306 +$514 +168%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $639 −$306 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $342 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $358 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $272 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $417 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $334 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $0 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $366 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $397 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $316 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $373 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $487 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $799 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $374 5h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $132 15h
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 13¢ $190 15h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $129 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $264 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $447 32h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $358 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $599 32h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,698 32h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $20 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $28 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $113 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $202 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $2,044 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $212 36h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $957 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,795.37 · official $26,795.37 (match) · 2668 history records