Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x852d…c3df
sports · 827 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$9,566 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,378 · open −$188
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,839
Realized−$9,378
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses473 / 350
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions4
Markets (closed)823 / 827
History coverage175d
Avg bet$730
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 4 History 823 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days−$160
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $870 $802 −$67 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $700 $662 −$38 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $450 $372 −$77 (-17%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 18¢ 6¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-70%)
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 80¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 85¢ 0¢ $273 $0 −$273 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $8 +$1 +9%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $2 +$3 +166%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $273 −$273 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $6 +$2 +36%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will CDPJuniorFC win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $256 +$84 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $96 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $666 −$18 -3%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $3,358 +$72 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +8%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $36 −$17 -48%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $208 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $9 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 28 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 27 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$2,787
other 28% −$7,440
world 3% +$1,107
politics 1% +$64
crypto 0% −$511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $2 27m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $0 27m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $0 27m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 8¢ $0 27m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $5 33m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 77¢ $2 25h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $1 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 42¢ $1 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 75¢ $3 25h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $1 25h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 75¢ $2 25h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $1 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $2 25h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 96¢ $5 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $3 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $1 47h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $1 47h
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 10¢ $1 2d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 41¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.7% -13.8% 60% 30% -4.5%
≤30d 125 -5.4% -14.4% 57% 37% -11.7%
≤90d 647 -14.2% -22.4% 53% 33% -13.3%
all 823 -6.1% -15.1% 57% 32% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 32% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 24% -19.5%
15% -30.6% 17% -27.2%
20% -37.4% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,839.20 · official $1,839.20 (match) · 2142 history records