Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8528…a81f crypto 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate92%122W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$20
other 35% +$10
tech 6% −$42
weather 3% +$1
sports 2% +$3
finance 1% $0
world 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -21.8% -29.2% 78% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 36 -3.4% -12.6% 89% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 120 -0.1% -9.7% 94% 9% -9.6%
all 132 +0.6% -9.0% 92% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 12% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses122 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)132 / 141
History coverage93d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 25? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Los Angeles: Christopher Papa vs Justin Roberts Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? Jun 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 54°F or higher on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 11? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 13 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 46h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $5 47h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $20 47h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 47h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $189 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 56¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $73 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 10d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 11d
ITF Los Angeles: Christopher Papa vs Justin Roberts BUY Christopher Papa 60¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 56¢ $1 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.03 · official $204.03 (match) · 286 history records