Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8526…72aa crypto 1188 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$683 (-4%) realized −$648 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%522W / 802L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day68.5pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,700
7 days−$2,633
14 days−$1,773
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$556
crypto 28% +$413
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -63.1% -66.6% 19% 14% -52.0%
≤30d 604 -28.4% -35.2% 35% 29% -12.6%
≤90d 1324 -19.2% -26.9% 39% 32% -12.6%
all 1324 -19.2% -26.9% 39% 32% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 32% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 28% -21.0%
15% -40.3% 24% -28.6%
20% -46.1% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$648
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses522 / 802
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1324 / 1188
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day68.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Thiago Seyboth Wild 87¢ 99¢ $293 $334 +$40 (+14%)
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Donstu Esports 40¢ 62¢ $73 $114 +$42 (+57%)
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs Subtop De France 25¢ 4¢ $26 $5 −$21 (-82%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 71¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Laslo Djere Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever Jun 28 $2 −$2 -138%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Maya Joint vs Ann Li Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
MLP Academics Heidelberg vs. Mitteldeutscher BC Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bordeaux: Moise Kouame vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 28 $1 −$1 -106%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Santos: Murkel Dellien vs Nick Hardt Jun 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Xinyu Wang vs Lois Boisson Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) Jun 28 $2 −$3 -130%
Aix en Provence: Alex Michelsen vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Diane Parry Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Francavilla: Max Schoenhaus vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Visker Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 28 $2 −$2 -116%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffs Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Gam Jun 28 $5 −$5 -112%
Wuxi: Fajing Sun vs Rio Noguchi Jun 28 $1 −$1 -118%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Haunted House vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champ Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Bondar vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs G2 Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major Sal Jun 28 $3 −$3 -107%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Oeiras 4: Lautaro Midon vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers Leagu Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Fluxo W7M (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 28 $1 −$1 -124%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Jun 28 $1 −$1 -103%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America S Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South Amer Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: ENTERPRISE Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bordeaux: Rinky Hijikata vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 28 $1 −$1 -125%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Wuxi: Rio Noguchi vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs AaB Esport (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se Jun 28 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs En-Shuo Liang Jun 28 $2 −$2 -108%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $159 18m
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 87¢ $294 30m
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Subtop De France 25¢ $27 54m
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 75¢ $121 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 71¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Donstu Esports 42¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Donstu Esports 38¢ $40 1h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 52¢ $51 24h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 68¢ $87 24h
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp BUY Inaki Montes 73¢ $10 24h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL HULIGANI 27¢ $17 26h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Jesse De Jager BUY Jesse De Jager 38¢ $50 27h
ITF Alkmaar: Marc Majdandzic vs Jesse De Jager BUY Jesse De Jager 40¢ $4 27h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 25¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 21¢ $1 27h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 24¢ $1 27h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs SELL MASQ 100¢ $90 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 24¢ $12 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $49 28h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY MASQ 91¢ $82 28h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY eSuba 27¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 75¢ $128 41h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 66¢ $37 42h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 64¢ $73 42h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 63¢ $67 42h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 56¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar SELL Donstu Esports 100¢ $36 43h
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs HOTU Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar BUY Donstu Esports 84¢ $30 44h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY eternal premium 37¢ $37 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.37 · official $452.37 (match) · 3500 history records