Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8525…3f12 weather 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-6%) realized −$9 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$5
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -28.4% -35.3% 7% 7% -25.7%
≤30d 15 -28.4% -35.3% 7% 7% -25.7%
≤90d 15 -28.4% -35.3% 7% 7% -25.7%
all 15 -28.4% -35.3% 7% 7% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 7% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 7% -32.8%
15% -47.1% 0% -39.3%
20% -52.3% 0% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 14
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Yes 46¢ 99¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+118%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? No 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 58m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 73¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 94¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 68¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 68¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.88 · official $17.88 (match) · 101 history records