Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8521…df10 sports 682 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,906 (-6%) realized −$4,005 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%258W / 423L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$840est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days−$257
14 days−$390
30 days−$1,081
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$3,576
other 16% −$813
crypto 1% −$199
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -26.3% -33.3% 33% 21% -31.9%
≤30d 119 -21.0% -28.6% 29% 24% -26.8%
≤90d 408 -15.9% -23.9% 37% 29% -16.5%
all 681 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 31% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 31% -16.4%
10% -28.0% 24% -24.4%
15% -35.0% 21% -31.7%
20% -41.4% 15% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$36 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$4,005
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses258 / 423
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$840
Open positions1
Markets (closed)681 / 682
History coverage116d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 681 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $41 $140 +$99 (+241%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $74 +$7 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $59 +$24 +40%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $19 −$10 -55%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$11 +28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 −$3 -6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$7 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 20 $28 +$7 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $32 +$19 +60%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 20 $97 −$49 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $68 +$53 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 −$52 -59%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $95 −$37 -38%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$38 -90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$8 -24%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 +$8 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $186 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $85 +$10 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$21 +32%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$36 -35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$31 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $103 −$16 -16%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $26 −$10 -40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $114 +$53 +46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $23 −$1 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $30 −$17 -59%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $38 −$3 -9%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $20 +$30 +146%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 −$21 -38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $111 −$20 -18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $10 −$5 -52%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $117 +$21 +18%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $10 +$14 +142%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $52 −$5 -11%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $62 −$62 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $26 −$10 -40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $67 −$9 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 24m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 27m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 30m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 41m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 42¢ $43 42m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 50m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $68 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $36 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $40 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $40 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $40 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $42 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $43 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $50 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 29h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $83 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $77 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.98 · official $139.98 (match) · 2283 history records