Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8521…c792
world · 84 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$37 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage466d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 25¢ 23¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $197 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $329 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $172 +$5 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $94 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $232 −$4 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $173 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $155 +$2 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $314 +$3 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $155 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 01 $311 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $174 −$3 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $148 −$8 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $1,350 +$7 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $74 +$10 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $123 −$2 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $7 +$1 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $48 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $155 +$3 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $157 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $172 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $172 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $304 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $1,086 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,196 −$1 -0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $69 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 31 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Dec 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 11 $7 $0 +5%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $7 +$9 +127%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 19 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 17 $2 $0 -28%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 14 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 86% −$1
other 9% +$35
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $6 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $11 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $40 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $36 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $173 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $173 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $65 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $70 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $170 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $119 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $156 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $118 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $151 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $157 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $157 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $94 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $94 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 9% -9.4%
≤90d 36 -0.7% -10.2% 25% 8% -9.5%
all 83 +4.8% -5.1% 39% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 10% -9.1%
10% -14.2% 5% -17.8%
15% -22.5% 5% -25.7%
20% -30.1% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.56 · official $39.56 (match) · 306 history records