Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851f…a49d crypto 702 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-3%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%314W / 388L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$29
14 days−$4
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +9.8% -0.7% 53% 35% -4.6%
≤30d 452 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 43% -12.9%
≤90d 702 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 41% -14.9%
all 702 -5.2% -14.2% 45% 41% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 41% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 33% -23.0%
15% -29.9% 24% -30.5%
20% -36.8% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses314 / 388
Open positions0
Markets (closed)702 / 702
History coverage60d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 702 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $8 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $16 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1933 history records