Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x851f…1711 world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+3%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$2
other 28% +$3
politics 8% −$1
sports 6% +$14
tech 5% +$2
weather 4% +$9
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +8.4% -1.9% 44% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 19 +2.7% -7.1% 42% 5% -9.4%
all 47 +14.2% +3.3% 45% 9% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 9% -7.0%
10% -6.5% 9% -15.9%
15% -15.6% 9% -24.0%
20% -23.9% 9% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.31 per $1 lost it wins $5.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage486d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $64 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $75 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $43 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 +5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $39 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $1 $0 -10%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 27 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 21 $27 +$2 +6%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 13 $37 $0 -1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? May 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 07 $1 +$4 +512%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -71%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $33 +$1 +4%
Temple vs. Tulsa Mar 06 $17 +$16 +92%
IUPUI vs. Wright State Mar 04 $19 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on February 25? Mar 04 $11 +$9 +89%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Feb 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $47 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $47 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $2 28h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 37h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $42 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $48 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $47 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records