Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851e…167e other 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$35
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$44
sports 25% −$20
culture 8% −$10
economics 7% −$7
politics 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)254 / 255
History coverage138d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $815 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $303 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $176 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $97 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $594 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $311 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $202 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $431 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $528 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $431 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $665 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $188 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $645 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 3h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 16h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 24h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 26h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 30h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 33h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 36h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 45h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 46h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $12 46h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $26 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.32 · official $54.32 (match) · 1457 history records