Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x851d…a743 weather 978 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,473 (-2%) realized −$1,471 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%762W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day53.4pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$221
14 days−$194
30 days−$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$1,233
sports 12% −$310
other 4% +$4
world 0% +$95
crypto 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 28% -12.8%
≤30d 451 +1.7% -8.0% 79% 21% -11.2%
≤90d 971 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 24% -11.5%
all 971 +0.3% -9.2% 78% 24% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 24% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 12% -19.9%
15% -25.9% 7% -27.7%
20% -33.1% 6% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$45 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$1,471
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses762 / 209
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions7
Markets (closed)971 / 978
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day53.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 971 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26? No 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 26? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 26? No 97¢ 95¢ $97 $95 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? No 96¢ 92¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 59¢ $57 $59 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26? No 95¢ 97¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 26? No 94¢ 95¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 193 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 25? Jun 26 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 26 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $186 +$14 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $122 +$78 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $178 +$22 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? Jun 25 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $124 −$124 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 24? Jun 25 $92 +$8 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 25 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 24? Jun 25 $72 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 24? Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $222 +$78 +35%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $164 +$36 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $92 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $86 +$14 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23? Jun 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $95 +$5 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $86 +$14 +16%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 23 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 22? Jun 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 22? Jun 23 $42 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $29 +$2 +5%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $76 +$24 +32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $74 +$26 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 22? Jun 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $134 +$66 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 22? Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 22 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 22 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 21? Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $237 −$236 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $67 6m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $38 32m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $95 34m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $19 36m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 26? BUY No 94¢ $7 37m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $27 43m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $49 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 96¢ $55 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $89 12h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $186 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $69 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $24 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $40 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.68 · official $502.78 (match) · 3500 history records