Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x851a…1d41
crypto · 125 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$160
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses114 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)117 / 125
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 8 History 117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Bolivia (-1.5) Jun 11 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% +$21
politics 9% +$5
finance 3% −$20
sports 2% +$1
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $13 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 19h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 96¢ $19 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $15 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 117 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 117 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 117 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.04 · official $160.04 (match) · 247 history records