Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8517…0924 sports 56 markets active 18d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-6%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%6W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day111.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$22
politics 32% −$12
sports 26% −$12
economics 5% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 56 -13.1% -21.4% 11% 9% -18.3%
≤90d 56 -13.1% -21.4% 11% 9% -18.3%
all 56 -13.1% -21.4% 11% 9% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 9% -18.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 7% -26.1%
15% -35.8% 4% -33.2%
20% -42.1% 2% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses6 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day111.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 -6%
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 10 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $47 −$2 -3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $19 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -11%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 10 $4 $0 -6%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $5 $0 -11%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 10 $5 −$1 -19%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 10 $2 $0 -18%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $4 −$1 -16%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 09 $5 −$1 -16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 −$1 -15%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -62%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 09 $21 −$1 -4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 $0 -3%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Serbia vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 09 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 09 $2 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 09 $35 −$3 -8%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 09 $67 −$8 -12%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -13%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 08 $4 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 18d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 41¢ $3 18d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 74¢ $5 18d
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 18d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 39¢ $5 18d
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 18d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 18d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 62¢ $6 18d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 21¢ $6 18d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 19¢ $4 18d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 18d
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch SELL Daniel Rincon 41¢ $3 18d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 37¢ $4 18d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis SELL Vitaliy Sachko 34¢ $4 18d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $4 19d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 17¢ $4 19d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) SELL Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $5 19d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 19d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 20¢ $5 19d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 19d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 19d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $4 19d
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Vitaliy Sachko 36¢ $5 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 74¢ $5 19d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 19d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 19d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 19d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 41¢ $4 19d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records