Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8513…f15e other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2
world 34% +$1
sports 9% $0
politics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 3% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.6% -9.0% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 46 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage298d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 28 $2 $0 -16%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $14 +$3 +24%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Nov 19 $12 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $3 $0 -5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 26 $26 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $25 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $5 $0 +8%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $22 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $23 9h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $17 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $20 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $7 13h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $49 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $48 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $48 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $30 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $18 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $48 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records