Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8513…789e crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$407 (+45%) realized +$407 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$48
14 days+$133
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$306
other 6% −$49
sports 5% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.6% -30.9% 29% 29% +17.4%
≤30d 14 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 43% +19.3%
≤90d 20 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 50% +28.6%
all 20 +8.2% -2.1% 55% 50% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 50% +28.6%
10% -11.5% 45% +16.3%
15% -20.0% 45% +5.0%
20% -27.9% 45% -5.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$17 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.5 per $1 lost it wins $3.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$407
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage69d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$121 +269%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$27 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $80 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$6 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $120 +$115 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 25 $25 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 17 $42 +$61 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 08 $175 +$89 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 08 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 23 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 10 $105 +$82 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $46 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $45 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $89 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $80 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $9 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $112 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $82 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records