Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:47:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x8512…cb45
crypto · 1155 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$420 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$421 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$200
Realized+$421
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses341 / 813
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1154 / 1155
History coverage5d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day277.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$421
14 days+$421
30 days+$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $227 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $218 −$37 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $212 −$25 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $215 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $229 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $216 +$31 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $200 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $230 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $224 −$48 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $212 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $221 −$43 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $243 −$43 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $229 −$58 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $220 −$41 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $223 +$37 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $223 +$33 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $221 +$35 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $234 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $223 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $237 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $228 −$39 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $220 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $212 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $220 −$38 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $220 +$31 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $233 +$24 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $215 +$27 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $233 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $234 +$33 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $231 +$26 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $223 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $222 −$44 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $223 −$45 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $217 +$30 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$420
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $18 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $19 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $50 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $12 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $29 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $17 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1154 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 13% -9.3%
≤30d 1154 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 1154 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 13% -9.3%
all 1154 +0.7% -8.9% 30% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover277.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 13% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 5% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.00 · official $200.00 (match) · 3500 history records