Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:04:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8512…e70e politics 81 markets active 18h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,919 (+19%) realized +$3,382 · open −$463
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate81%71W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day103.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$1,143
other 24% +$176
world 16% −$32
sports 13% +$203
tech 3% +$42
economics 2% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -26.4% -33.4% 57% 21% -31.5%
≤30d 74 -8.6% -17.3% 80% 18% -19.7%
≤90d 88 -6.8% -15.7% 81% 19% -16.8%
all 88 -6.8% -15.7% 81% 19% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 19% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 3% -24.8%
15% -31.1% 3% -32.1%
20% -37.9% 2% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
42.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$162 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,046
Realized+$3,382
Unrealized−$463
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses71 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)88 / 81
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day103.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 90¢ 91¢ $417 $423 +$6 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 77¢ $307 $257 −$50 (-16%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 90¢ 51¢ $249 $140 −$110 (-44%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 91¢ 68¢ $181 $137 −$44 (-24%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 80¢ $91 $80 −$11 (-12%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 61¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ $254 $0 −$254 (-100%)
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 90¢ 43¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Benched gods vs m1x - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +200%
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -148%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg Jun 17 $498 −$498 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Jun 17 $324 −$324 -100%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -427%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $350 +$31 +9%
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $227 +$23 +10%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $245 +$25 +10%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $173 +$16 +10%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% o Jun 13 $14 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $86 +$9 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $265 +$25 +10%
Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 12 $497 +$53 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $368 +$32 +9%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $501 +$43 +9%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $121 +$11 +9%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $498 +$51 +10%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 09 $5 $0 +11%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $27 +$3 +9%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $501 +$54 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $122 +$13 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $14 +$1 +10%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 06 $41 +$4 +11%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $499 +$51 +10%
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than Jun 05 $23 +$2 +8%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 04 $501 +$49 +10%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $500 +$45 +9%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +11%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $526 +$45 +9%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $488 +$47 +10%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 01 $500 −$499 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 18h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 19h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 19h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 19h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY No 92¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,045.97 · official $1,051.64 (match) · 3500 history records