Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x850c…35ab other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 63L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$6
14 days+$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$2
other 26% −$31
sports 24% +$4
politics 21% −$4
finance 2% −$12
tech 1% −$9
crypto 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 44% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 +0.0% -9.5% 30% 4% -9.8%
≤90d 41 -2.7% -11.9% 34% 2% -9.8%
all 95 -2.8% -12.0% 34% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage446d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $137 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $426 +$4 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $157 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $132 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $21 −$4 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $137 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $130 +$8 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $131 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $137 −$6 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $136 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $133 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $136 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $81 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $15 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $137 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $3 $0 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $110 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $3 −$2 -46%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $228 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $230 −$12 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $150 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $7 +$5 +76%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $55 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $145 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $145 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 25 $330 −$18 -6%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $172 −$13 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $137 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $24 −$9 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $157 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $1,836 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $920 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $916 +$4 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $916 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $916 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $2 $0 +10%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $115 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $137 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 26h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $17 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $127 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $127 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $115 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $148 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $148 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $146 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $132 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $132 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $32 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $88 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $90 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $120 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $137 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records