Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
85 0x850c…88de other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 766d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$107 (+25%) realized +$116 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +71% what you keep after slip
Net edge+71%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%11W / 12L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$142
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$151
economics 15% −$64
tech 14% +$20
politics 8% $0
world 7% +$47
crypto 3% +$14
culture 2% −$8
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +173.4% +147.3% 43% 43% +164.6%
≤30d 8 +157.6% +133.1% 50% 50% +108.4%
≤90d 9 +157.6% +133.0% 56% 56% +113.1%
all 23 +89.5% +71.4% 48% 48% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.4% 48% +40.1%
10% +55.0% 48% +26.7%
15% +40.1% 43% +14.4%
20% +26.3% 39% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +136% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +89% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +93% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$13 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

766d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses11 / 12
Open positions11
Markets (closed)23 / 34
History coverage766d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 11¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? No 15¢ 16¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 19¢ 18¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 26¢ 24¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-10%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 22¢ 20¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 18¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 24¢ 20¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 12¢ 10¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 18¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 +$59 +521%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$35 +307%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$89 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 13 $55 +$26 +47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 20 $30 +$47 +157%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jan 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Dec 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 04 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? Jul 24 $7 +$12 +178%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? Jun 13 $10 +$27 +274%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jan 21 $4 +$8 +212%
Will Kamala Harris be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee? Jul 25 $4 +$9 +232%
Will Keir Starmer be next UK prime minister? Jul 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? May 20 $3 +$15 +509%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 77¢ $70 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 24¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 19¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 22¢ $11 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 26¢ $11 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 15¢ $11 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $11 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 22¢ $11 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $11 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $11 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 21¢ $11 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 12¢ $11 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $11 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $7 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 12¢ $11 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $11 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $11 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $11 6d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 75d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 95d
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 11¢ $21 130d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $24 151d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 14¢ $40 151d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da BUY Yes 68¢ $55 160d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 169d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I BUY Yes $6 189d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 74¢ $7 231d
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 331d
Diddy found guilty of sex trafficking? BUY No 36¢ $7 356d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July? SELL No 86¢ $37 373d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.84 · official $108.84 (match) · 113 history records