Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x850b…be22 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$95 (+14%) realized +$117 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day60.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$43
sports 40% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +26.6% +14.6% 87% 73% +16.6%
≤30d 15 +26.6% +14.6% 87% 73% +16.6%
≤90d 15 +26.6% +14.6% 87% 73% +16.6%
all 15 +26.6% +14.6% 87% 73% +16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 73% +16.6%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 67% +5.5%
15% -6.4% 53% -4.7%
20% -15.6% 27% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.38 per $1 lost it wins $6.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions16
Markets (closed)15 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs 555 80¢ 83¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$9 +60%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +39%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $28 +$6 +23%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $19 +$9 +46%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$30 +66%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 −$2 -32%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $35 +$12 +35%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$2 +4%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 41m
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs SELL Fancy United 100¢ $24 44m
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 54¢ $16 46m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 49m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 99¢ $35 1h
Valorant: Fancy United vs TrinitY (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY Fancy United 61¢ $15 2h
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: Playoffs BUY 555 80¢ $25 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $18 2h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 71¢ $25 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 50¢ $15 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ $14 3h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $15 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 75¢ $20 3h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 100¢ $28 13h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr SELL ROSE 100¢ $29 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 2¢ $0 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.86 · official $282.53 (match) · 73 history records