Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x8508…c22f sports 1055 markets active 10h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,320 (+2%) realized +$2,338 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%519W / 526L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1,369est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$800
14 days+$331
30 days+$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$711
other 4% +$1,077
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +5.9% -4.1% 55% 55% -3.5%
≤30d 466 +1.4% -8.2% 54% 54% -7.9%
≤90d 1000 -0.6% -10.1% 51% 51% -8.2%
all 1045 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -7.9%
10% -17.6% 50% -16.7%
15% -25.6% 50% -24.7%
20% -32.9% 50% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$84 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized+$2,338
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses519 / 526
Est. fees paid−$1,369
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1045 / 1055
History coverage98d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1045 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $108 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 52¢ $103 $100 −$3 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $111 +$78 +70%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $102 +$93 +91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $101 +$95 +93%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $101 +$81 +80%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $103 +$89 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$109 +108%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $111 −$110 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $106 −$105 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 16 $108 −$5 -4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $103 −$102 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $108 −$107 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $104 +$86 +83%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $109 +$86 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $106 +$84 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $106 +$71 +66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $108 −$107 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $100 +$109 +108%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$107 +105%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $102 +$116 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 +$155 +152%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $113 +$80 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $108 +$83 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $106 +$83 +78%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $106 +$84 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $108 −$107 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $109 −$108 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $103 −$102 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $104 +$86 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $43 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $104 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 10h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $194 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $103 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $6 11h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $55 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $109 12h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ $182 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $111 13h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $111 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $106 14h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 55¢ $104 14h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $108 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $102 15h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $103 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $108 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 16h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 16h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $103 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 16h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $103 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $103 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $101 17h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $58 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 33h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.59 · official $599.57 (match) · 1808 history records