Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8508…9fda crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,767 (-20%) realized −$1,551 · open −$216
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,584now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$10
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,318
other 4% −$72
economics 3% −$90
world 2% −$127
tech 1% −$10
finance 0% −$10
politics 0% −$3
sports 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +11.3% +0.7% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤90d 35 -54.0% -58.3% 9% 6% -60.3%
all 73 -38.0% -43.9% 15% 12% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.9% 12% -34.1%
10% -49.2% 10% -40.4%
15% -54.1% 10% -46.2%
20% -58.6% 8% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$34 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,584
Realized−$1,551
Unrealized−$216
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)73 / 78
History coverage156d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,737 $1,538 −$199 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-81%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 06 $5 +$10 +180%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 21 $11 −$5 -46%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 06 $5 −$3 -57%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 06 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 06 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 26 $35 −$19 -55%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 26 $110 −$56 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 22 $35 −$19 -54%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 19 $15 −$9 -60%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -93%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 17 $10 −$2 -19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 17 $70 −$37 -53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 17 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 17 $90 −$40 -44%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $40 −$24 -59%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 10 $14 −$5 -37%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Apr 07 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 27 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $130 −$47 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $44 −$23 -52%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 26 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 26 $132 −$113 -85%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 24 $10 −$1 -11%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 03 $65 −$31 -48%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 24 $525 −$225 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 24 $501 −$22 -4%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in February? Feb 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Feb 14 $500 −$465 -93%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Feb 14 $634 −$576 -91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 12 $60 +$13 +22%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Feb 05 $50 −$10 -20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Feb 05 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 05 $10 −$1 -8%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 05 $290 +$133 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $44 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $44 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 5d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 5d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $73 10d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $54 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $15 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,000 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $319 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $106 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $80 13d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $96 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 26d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 26d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 41d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 1¢ $2 41d
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 41d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $4 41d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $4 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $5 48d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $5 48d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 51d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 51d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,584.33 · official $1,584.33 (match) · 308 history records