Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8507…c029 world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%30W / 52L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$5
politics 18% +$1
other 17% +$19
sports 17% $0
finance 2% −$1
weather 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 28 +53.4% +38.8% 25% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 68 +19.8% +8.4% 32% 3% -9.4%
all 82 +19.5% +8.1% 37% 6% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.1% 6% -8.8%
10% -2.2% 6% -17.6%
15% -11.7% 4% -25.5%
20% -20.3% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses30 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage485d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $16 +$1 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $18 −$1 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -20%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $147 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $149 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $38 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $24 +$3 +13%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $34 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $66 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 22 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $97 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $71 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $79 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $70 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 45h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $37 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.51 · official $0.00 · 349 history records