Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8506…2a45 weather 1187 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-1%) realized −$211 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%1107W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 1% -9.8%
≤30d 370 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 1168 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 4% -9.7%
all 1175 -0.3% -9.8% 94% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 4% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized−$211
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses1107 / 68
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1175 / 1187
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? No 92¢ 98¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 96¢ 93¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $50 50m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $21 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $50 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $12 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $25 12h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $25 13h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $25 15h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 99¢ $9 15h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 17h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $28 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $25 22h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $19 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $9 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.83 · official $384.34 (match) · 3500 history records