Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8506…612a crypto 415 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (365 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$275 (+3%) realized +$278 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate86%355W / 59L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day365.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (365 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 414 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 20% -9.3%
≤30d 414 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 20% -9.3%
≤90d 414 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 20% -9.3%
all 414 +1.2% -8.5% 86% 20% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover365.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 20% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 6% -18.0%
15% -25.2% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$278
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses355 / 59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)414 / 415
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day365.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 68¢ 56¢ $19 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$5 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +61%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$8 +181%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$6 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$19 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$18 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $20 −$18 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $80 +$9 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.96 · official $43.75 · 1130 history records