Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x8503…8172 crypto 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$647 (+8%) realized +$647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%185W / 140L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$721
14 days+$721
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 +14.3% +3.4% 63% 62% -0.1%
≤30d 225 +9.3% -1.1% 61% 60% -1.0%
≤90d 325 +1.4% -8.2% 57% 55% -3.9%
all 325 +1.4% -8.2% 57% 55% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 55% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 52% -13.1%
15% -25.0% 49% -21.5%
20% -32.4% 38% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses185 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)325 / 325
History coverage35d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 325 Trades
no open positions (112 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$74 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $32 +$87 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $62 +$39 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$52 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$48 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$40 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$21 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$34 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$62 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$26 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$20 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $82 +$43 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $37 +$88 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$17 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$21 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$17 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $84 −$81 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$18 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $118 −$114 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $124 −$120 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1116 history records