Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8503…dc65 crypto 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$526 (-3%) realized −$546 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$412per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$277
politics 34% +$70
crypto 12% +$86
other 10% −$295
sports 8% −$19
finance 1% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -91.6% -92.4% 0% 0% -84.1%
≤30d 3 -91.6% -92.4% 0% 0% -84.1%
≤90d 5 -75.0% -77.4% 0% 0% -60.4%
all 40 -26.2% -33.3% 58% 8% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.3% 8% -12.3%
10% -39.6% 2% -20.7%
15% -45.5% 0% -28.4%
20% -50.8% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% too few recent
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$706) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$47 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$546
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage623d
Avg bet$412
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 97¢ $52 $72 +$20 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $95 −$71 -75%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 13 $189 −$95 -50%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 25 $379 −$189 -50%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $742 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 14? Jan 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 12 $136 −$48 -35%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 28 $1,305 +$11 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Nov 23 $1,273 +$10 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3? Nov 03 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5? Nov 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 02 $1,192 +$10 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 01 $2,208 +$12 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Sep 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 01 $707 +$6 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? May 07 $228 +$1 +0%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30? Apr 29 $306 +$59 +19%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Apr 29 $91 +$1 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 20 $507 +$11 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 06 $874 +$7 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Mar 25 $350 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 26 $345 +$11 +3%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 21 $307 +$4 +1%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Feb 17 $1,132 −$161 -14%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 20 $337 $0 +0%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 11 $706 −$105 -15%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 17 $437 +$5 +1%
Solana above $170 on November 1? Oct 26 $240 +$60 +25%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $288 +$3 +1%
Solana above $155 on October 25? Oct 22 $284 +$3 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $1,022 −$26 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 in October? Oct 18 $291 +$9 +3%
Will Solana reach $160 in October? Oct 16 $353 +$14 +4%
Solana above $145 on October 18? Oct 14 $87 +$16 +18%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Oct 08 $114 +$2 +2%
Ethereum above $2,400 on October 11? Oct 06 $229 +$12 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $53 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 17¢ $17 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $24 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $24 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $95 38d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $95 39d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $189 54d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $189 56d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 118d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $73 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $49 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $39 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $78 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 145d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 145d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 154d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $106 154d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $180 154d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 14? BUY No 3¢ $7 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 14? BUY No 3¢ $2 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 14? BUY No 3¢ $5 158d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.90 · official $62.15 · 454 history records