Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x8503…6666 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,594 (+8%) realized +$1,877 · open −$283
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate73%30W / 11L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$420
14 days−$244
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$112
sports 36% +$768
politics 18% +$358
tech 6% +$75
crypto 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.8% +9.3% 100% 80% +10.2%
≤30d 21 +13.3% +2.5% 76% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 41 +9.4% -1.0% 73% 56% -2.5%
all 41 +9.4% -1.0% 73% 56% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 56% -2.5%
10% -10.5% 39% -11.8%
15% -19.1% 20% -20.4%
20% -27.0% 7% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$909) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$126 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$930
Realized+$1,877
Unrealized−$283
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses30 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage65d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Senegal 74¢ 50¢ $998 $681 −$317 (-32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+20%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 95¢ $41 $53 +$12 (+30%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 60¢ $50 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 62¢ 77¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $3 +$1 +33%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $28 +$4 +15%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $610 +$143 +24%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $292 +$22 +8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,002 −$847 -84%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will João Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $39 +$16 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$37 +36%
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $806 +$91 +11%
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $316 +$14 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $902 +$67 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$5 +20%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $18 +$9 +47%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $922 +$77 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $909 +$90 +10%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$4 +456%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $472 +$58 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,998 +$513 +26%
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season May 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $1,993 +$429 +22%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $1,798 +$200 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $1,897 +$158 +8%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $66 −$7 -11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 05 $102 +$30 +29%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $52 +$23 +44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,301 +$297 +23%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $1,234 +$75 +6%
Will Mikel Arteta be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 27 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 25 $2 +$2 +100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $999 +$256 +26%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $8 +$4 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 74¢ $208 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 74¢ $671 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 74¢ $19 1h
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal 74¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $50 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 75¢ $3 22h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 75¢ $0 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 93¢ $32 22h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 81¢ $24 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 77¢ $3 23h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $32 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $5 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $17 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $63 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $17 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $50 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $159 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $5 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 81¢ $245 3d
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY Ghana 80¢ $16 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $41 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $11 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $152 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $15 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $182 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $36 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $27 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 80¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $929.85 · official $972.39 · 210 history records