Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84ff…f90e crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$201 (-1%) realized −$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$786per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 34% −$9
sports 34% −$9
crypto 14% −$180
other 10% −$3
politics 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 33 +1.1% -8.6% 76% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -10.2%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.8%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.6%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$32 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage270d
Avg bet$786
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? Mar 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 07 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 07 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? Feb 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 18? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $4,548 −$4 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 23? Feb 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 12? Jan 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $4,500 −$5 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $4,510 −$5 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 02 $4,525 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 21? Dec 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15? Dec 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 3? Dec 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 27? Dec 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 05 $2,573 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025? Nov 04 $2,560 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 30? Nov 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 24? Oct 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 21? Oct 24 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5? Oct 05 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Bitcoin reach $124k in October? Oct 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $2,202 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $35 26d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 38d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $50 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $109 110d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $30 116d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 130d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $33 130d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 131d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 23? BUY No 100¢ $30 153d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 164d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $28 165d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $4,495 174d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $4,500 174d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $4,505 174d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $4,510 174d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $4,515 174d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $4,520 174d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $4,520 174d
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $4,525 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 178d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 179d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 186d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 192d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 204d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 210d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.95 · official $49.95 (match) · 80 history records