Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84fb…4ec8 crypto 587 markets active 4d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate48%282W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -33.6% -39.9% 32% 32% -40.8%
≤30d 25 -33.6% -39.9% 32% 32% -40.8%
≤90d 587 -1.9% -11.2% 48% 32% -12.9%
all 587 -1.9% -11.2% 48% 32% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 32% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 22% -21.2%
15% -27.5% 11% -28.8%
20% -34.6% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses282 / 305
Open positions0
Markets (closed)587 / 587
History coverage56d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 587 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$16 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$25 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$9 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 05 $9 −$8 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 05 $9 −$3 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 05 $19 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 05 $9 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 05 $9 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 05 $9 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 05 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 05 $9 +$5 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 04 $19 −$15 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 04 $19 −$5 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $19 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $9 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 04 $9 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 04 $9 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 04 $9 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 04 $28 −$8 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 04 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 04 $9 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 04 $7 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 04 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $19 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 04 $28 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $12 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $6 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1837 history records