Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84fb…c8b8 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$693 (-10%) realized −$754 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate55%53W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$116
14 days+$116
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$89
sports 30% −$756
politics 6% +$48
other 2% +$78
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +58.0% +42.9% 100% 100% +47.2%
≤30d 2 +58.0% +42.9% 100% 100% +47.2%
≤90d 17 -64.3% -67.7% 18% 18% -59.4%
all 96 -26.0% -33.0% 55% 30% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 30% -19.6%
10% -39.5% 17% -27.3%
15% -45.3% 12% -34.4%
20% -50.7% 7% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$35 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 43
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage221d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $65 $126 +$61 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $82 +$13 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $103 +$103 +100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $67 −$34 -51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner May 21 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner May 21 $40 +$44 +111%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $111 −$70 -63%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 21 $27 −$27 -98%
James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 May 21 $82 −$81 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 21 $36 −$20 -56%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5 May 21 $142 −$140 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 12 $12 −$9 -78%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Chinese Taipei win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 03 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 25 $273 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 25 $200 +$35 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 25 $200 −$74 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 25 $299 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 25 $142 +$67 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 25 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Trump say "IQ" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $30 +$7 +23%
Will Trump say "Peanut" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $30 +$9 +31%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $30 +$16 +54%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Feb 25 $110 +$18 +16%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $150 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 24 $150 +$23 +15%
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during the 2026 State of the Union a Feb 24 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 24 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 24 $200 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 24 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 24 $200 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 24 $110 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 24 $201 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 24 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $46 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $95 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $103 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 29¢ $15 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro SELL Liquid 31¢ $15 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 32¢ $32 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 6¢ $3 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 6¢ $3 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 12¢ $12 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro SELL Liquid 40¢ $16 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 20¢ $31 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 48¢ $14 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 48¢ $2 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY Liquid 48¢ $4 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner SELL Liquid 99¢ $84 30d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner BUY Liquid 47¢ $40 30d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A SELL M80 11¢ $41 30d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY M80 28¢ $111 30d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $7 30d
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $27 30d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 32¢ $28 30d
James Harden: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 51¢ $82 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 SELL Under 14¢ $16 30d
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 40¢ $41 30d
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 45¢ $102 30d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 BUY Yes 56¢ $101 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Under 31¢ $36 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 31¢ $36 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.30 · official $126.35 (match) · 360 history records