Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84f9…df7a crypto 397 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%377W / 20L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$53
14 days−$56
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$121
other 17% −$237
sports 17% +$137
finance 6% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -3.1% -12.3% 95% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 196 -2.0% -11.3% 96% 1% -11.6%
≤90d 376 -3.3% -12.5% 95% 0% -22.3%
all 397 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$60 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses377 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 397
History coverage234d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $49 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $16 17h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 21h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $36 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 2172 history records