Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x84f6…cd83 sports 60 markets active 7d ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+8%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%31W / 29L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$0
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$21
other 8% +$22
world 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 60 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 52% -3.1%
≤90d 60 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 52% -3.1%
all 60 +7.0% -3.2% 52% 52% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 52% -3.1%
10% -12.4% 52% -12.3%
15% -20.9% 37% -20.8%
20% -28.7% 35% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses31 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage23d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $5 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $10 +$15 +150%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $9 +$9 +97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $3 +$2 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $9 −$9 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Billy Elekana vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, May 31 $86 −$1 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $4 +$2 +61%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $3 +$1 +33%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $123 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $20 +$6 +30%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Patrick Kypson May 25 $87 −$1 -2%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $17 +$7 +42%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$1 +97%
Roland Garros WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Magda Linette May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $9 +$27 +291%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner May 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw? May 21 $3 +$1 +32%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $5 +$7 +146%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to Score May 21 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$1 +65%
Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín: O/U 2.5 May 21 $5 +$4 +97%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $3 +$9 +291%
Will CR Flamengo vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw? May 21 $2 $0 +32%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$1 +97%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 May 21 $2 +$1 +97%
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5) May 21 $5 +$3 +65%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $5 +$4 +97%
Spread: Zamalek SC (-1.5) May 20 $2 $0 +32%
Will Pyramids FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 $0 +32%
Spread: Al Shabab Saudi Club (-1.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 20 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 20 $5 +$1 +32%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC end in a draw? May 20 $2 +$6 +388%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
El Masry SC vs. El Ahly SC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens BUY Suzan Lamens 40¢ $2 6d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 50¢ $2 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 60¢ $2 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 60¢ $2 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 60¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $2 8d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $9 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes $10 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 50¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 50¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 50¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 50¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 50¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 50¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 30¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 30¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 30¢ $2 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 30¢ $2 15d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 202 history records