Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84f4…4412 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$53 (-12%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 46% 46% -22.1%
≤30d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 46% 46% -22.1%
≤90d 13 -17.2% -25.1% 46% 46% -22.1%
all 13 -17.2% -25.1% 46% 46% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 46% -22.1%
10% -32.3% 46% -29.6%
15% -38.8% 46% -36.4%
20% -44.8% 38% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$30 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 44¢ 44¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 39¢ 38¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $44 +$23 +52%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 +$26 +119%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $47 +$45 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $16 +$16 +97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $30 +$13 +44%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $48 +$32 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $13 51m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $11 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $12 29h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $20 29h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $23 30h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $30 30h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $44 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $22 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $72 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $30 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $16 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $21 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 50¢ $26 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $35 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $48 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.83 · official $23.83 (match) · 29 history records