Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84f1…d22f politics 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 60L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$306per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$8
other 25% −$6
sports 12% −$12
tech 7% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 62 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage198d
Avg bet$306
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $545 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $265 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $266 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $272 −$6 -2%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $272 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $272 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 17 $273 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $273 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $273 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $275 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 06 $279 −$4 -2%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $558 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $279 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $558 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $561 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $826 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $281 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $281 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 13 $281 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $281 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $281 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $281 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? Mar 06 $281 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 05 $270 −$1 -0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 05 $267 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $270 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $268 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 02 $277 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $272 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Yūichirō Tamaki be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $277 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $276 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 04 $268 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 03 $275 $0 -0%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 02 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $272 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 31 $279 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $279 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025 Dec 22 $277 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $265 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $266 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $266 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $265 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 13d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $265 21d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $266 21d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $266 22d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $266 23d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $266 32d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $272 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $272 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 34d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $272 36d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $272 36d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $273 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 42d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 42d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $273 45d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 45d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 45d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $274 62d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $273 63d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $273 63d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $273 64d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $273 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $273 68d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $273 71d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $274 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records