Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x84f0…ff86 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-10%) realized −$62 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$71
other 35% −$62
sports 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 44% -8.8%
≤30d 59 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 44% -8.8%
≤90d 59 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 44% -8.8%
all 59 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 44% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 44% -8.8%
10% -15.7% 37% -17.5%
15% -23.8% 31% -25.5%
20% -31.3% 24% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$26 +492%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$31 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +84%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$13 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 −$6 -33%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +321%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.73 · official $3.73 (match) · 121 history records