Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x84e7…abfe other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 329d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-7%) realized −$29 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$38
world 32% +$35
other 22% −$23
sports 13% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -18.9% -26.6% 50% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 50% -16.8%
10% -33.6% 50% -24.8%
15% -40.0% 25% -32.1%
20% -45.9% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$34 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

329d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage329d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $37 $44 +$7 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $40 +$11 +26%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Feb 05 $100 −$38 -38%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? Jul 24 $99 +$35 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $37 1h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 18d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) SELL India 100¢ $51 122d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) BUY India 79¢ $40 122d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 51¢ $62 132d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 82¢ $100 231d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? SELL No 91¢ $134 327d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? BUY No 67¢ $99 328d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.90 · official $43.90 (match) · 8 history records