Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x84e7…8119
other · 43 markets active 1h ago
6.5score
+$157 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$115 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized+$115
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage590d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 4 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$14
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 60¢ 94¢ $34 $53 +$19 (+57%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $22 $21 −$2 (-8%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 32¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$11 +109%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 24 $14 +$3 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $16 +$6 +37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Auxerre place 16th for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? May 18 $42 +$73 +175%
Will Nice place 16th for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? May 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$23 +111%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $22 −$1 -3%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $36 +$4 +12%
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February? Apr 28 $39 +$36 +94%
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February? Dec 23 $28 +$8 +29%
Will François Bayrou be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Michel Barnier out as prime minister of France in 2024? Dec 13 $1 +$2 +400%
Will Jean-Yves Le Drian be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 13 $4 −$1 -38%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next French Prime Minister? Dec 12 $5 +$2 +47%
1-25 bps decrease in ECB interest rates after 2024 December meeting? Dec 11 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? Nov 20 $9 +$28 +319%
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary? Nov 18 $4 $0 +11%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Nov 10 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in November? Nov 09 $6 +$9 +151%
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 09 $8 −$2 -26%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 07 $4 $0 -9%
Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in November? Nov 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Brazilian Grand Prix? Nov 03 $7 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$75
finance 27% +$21
politics 14% −$3
sports 11% −$23
weather 6% +$36
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% +$6
culture 2% −$6
tech 1% +$28
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $5 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $14 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $22 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $25 13d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $15 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $22 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $40 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $6 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $72 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $3 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $52 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $61 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $12 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $11 23d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 25d
Will Nice place 16th for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 26d
Will Nice place 16th for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 26d
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? SELL No 71¢ $43 26d
Will Auxerre place 16th for the 2025-26 Ligue 1 season? BUY No 23¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤30d 17 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 53% +12.0%
≤90d 18 +0.9% -8.7% 56% 56% +19.6%
all 39 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 49% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 49% +13.8%
10% -16.0% 36% +2.9%
15% -24.1% 28% -7.0%
20% -31.6% 21% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.08 · official $103.08 (match) · 118 history records