Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x84e5…3fed sports 283 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$937 (+2%) realized +$940 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%170W / 111L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$303est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$73
14 days−$125
30 days−$822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,397
other 2% −$632
crypto 1% −$91
world 1% +$171
culture 1% +$135
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.0% -33.0% 47% 40% -18.4%
≤30d 77 -14.7% -22.9% 56% 49% -20.2%
≤90d 242 -4.9% -14.0% 63% 57% -8.7%
all 281 -8.1% -16.9% 60% 54% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 54% -7.1%
10% -24.8% 34% -16.0%
15% -32.1% 18% -24.1%
20% -38.7% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$70 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$940
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses170 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$303
Open positions2
Markets (closed)281 / 283
History coverage118d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? No 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? No 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $81 +$42 +52%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 26 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $54 −$36 -67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $100 +$13 +13%
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $146 +$9 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski Jun 24 $101 −$41 -41%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $27 +$7 +26%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $5 +$6 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $31 −$31 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 19 $181 −$180 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $99 −$3 -3%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $151 +$30 +20%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $77 +$20 +26%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $125 +$25 +20%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $40 +$9 +21%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $119 +$13 +11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +135%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $47 −$36 -77%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$7 +47%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $110 +$19 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $19 −$16 -83%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $5 −$1 -15%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $61 −$39 -63%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $40 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $201 −$160 -80%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 11 $81 +$22 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $30 +$20 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $60 +$10 +16%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $56 +$10 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $71 −$8 -11%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Elias Ymer Jun 08 $46 +$10 +21%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $161 −$27 -17%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $101 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY No 19¢ $11 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 62¢ $28 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $81 15h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No $1 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 11¢ $2 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? SELL No 44¢ $16 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY No 78¢ $51 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Jack Draper 88¢ $100 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 59¢ $10 2d
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Grigor Dimitrov 94¢ $146 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski SELL Taylor Fritz 50¢ $59 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Taylor Fritz vs Jan Choinski BUY Taylor Fritz 83¢ $101 3d
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 87¢ $14 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 67¢ $20 6d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 79¢ $27 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka $1 6d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $30 7d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $5 7d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 88¢ $181 7d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 10¢ $3 7d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 50¢ $34 7d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 56¢ $22 7d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 88¢ $96 8d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 83¢ $151 8d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 83¢ $125 9d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 79¢ $77 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.57 · official $106.58 (match) · 562 history records