Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:39:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
84 0x84e3…8355 sports 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%120W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$4
other 9% +$4
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +16.4% +5.3% 48% 44% +5.6%
≤30d 100 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 50% -14.2%
≤90d 134 -1.3% -10.7% 61% 49% -12.3%
all 192 +1.2% -8.4% 62% 54% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 54% -10.1%
10% -17.2% 38% -18.7%
15% -25.2% 24% -26.6%
20% -32.5% 15% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses120 / 72
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)192 / 197
History coverage244d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 -40%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$2 +156%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$1 -44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$1 -38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $2 −$2 -86%
Dota 2: VooDooSh Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Pla Jun 07 $1 −$1 -80%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $1 $0 -22%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 07 $2 −$1 -55%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $1 $0 -34%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 $0 -24%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 06 $1 $0 +29%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $1 $0 -26%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 49¢ $1 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 7h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 27h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $1 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $1 28h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $1 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $0 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $1 30h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $1 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $1 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 38h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 434 history records