Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84e3…0983 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$338 (-7%) realized −$338 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$459
sports 28% +$73
world 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤30d 26 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 38% -17.1%
≤90d 26 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 38% -17.1%
all 26 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 38% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% -17.1%
10% -21.9% 35% -25.1%
15% -29.4% 27% -32.3%
20% -36.4% 15% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$70 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$338
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $241 −$6 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$9 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$21 -69%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $420 −$169 -40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $273 −$273 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,023 −$41 -4%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$53 -74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $447 +$113 +25%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $231 −$10 -4%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $123 −$86 -70%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $433 −$66 -15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $112 −$29 -26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $71 +$99 +140%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $231 +$48 +21%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$18 -61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $121 +$66 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$20 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $177 +$268 +152%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 −$55 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $274 −$262 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $136 +$59 +44%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $26 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $222 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $11 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 17¢ $9 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $30 6h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $108 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 66¢ $143 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $231 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $395 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $422 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $351 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $69 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records