Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84e0…e90d other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$846 (-7%) realized −$865 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$442per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$257
7 days−$1,575
14 days−$1,575
30 days−$1,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$118
sports 40% −$745
crypto 13% −$1,050
world 3% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 30% -23.0%
≤30d 25 +6.9% -3.3% 28% 28% -24.2%
≤90d 25 +6.9% -3.3% 28% 28% -24.2%
all 25 +6.9% -3.3% 28% 28% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 28% -24.2%
10% -12.6% 28% -31.4%
15% -21.0% 24% -38.0%
20% -28.8% 24% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$371 vs −$245 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$865
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$442
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $262 $281 +$19 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $276 −$11 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,117 −$580 -52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $560 −$242 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$73 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $305 −$24 -8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $365 +$263 +72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $376 −$111 -30%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 +$667 +326%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $311 +$219 +70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,526 −$215 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $998 −$986 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $916 −$902 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$60 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$68 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $203 +$53 +26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $400 −$394 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $455 −$56 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $684 +$764 +112%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $353 +$331 +94%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 +$302 +589%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $289 −$284 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 54¢ $265 7m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 21¢ $264 37m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 21¢ $276 53m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $277 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $260 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 21¢ $259 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $827 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 12¢ $62 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $258 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 37¢ $257 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $302 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $31 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 21h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $628 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $365 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $265 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $376 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 28¢ $132 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $872 32h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $103 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 33h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $51 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $57 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 87¢ $472 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $311 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 83¢ $2,311 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.14 · official $281.14 (match) · 57 history records