Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84db…37b5 crypto 189 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%86W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day143.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -13.4% -21.7% 41% 38% -26.7%
≤30d 189 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 43% -17.1%
≤90d 189 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 43% -17.1%
all 189 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 43% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 43% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 40% -25.1%
15% -25.6% 33% -32.3%
20% -32.9% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses86 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day143.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $47 −$22 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$3 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$4 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$33 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$14 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $47 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $47 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $34 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 469 history records