Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x84da…50c2 crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-5%) realized −$142 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$483
14 days−$172
30 days−$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$182
other 4% −$13
sports 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -34.3% -40.5% 30% 30% -50.9%
≤30d 80 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 41% -15.5%
≤90d 80 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 41% -15.5%
all 80 -9.5% -18.1% 42% 41% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 41% -15.5%
10% -25.9% 41% -23.6%
15% -33.1% 39% -30.9%
20% -39.7% 35% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$26 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage8d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$45 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$41 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$35 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$25 -81%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$19 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$14 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 09 $51 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 08 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.87 · official $6.88 (match) · 189 history records